Oregon Population Forecast Program

.title[
# Oregon Population Forecast Program
]
.subtitle[
## Proposal Forecasts for Counties & UGBs
]
.author[
### Lake County
]
.institute[
### Portland State University Population Research Center
]
.date[
### March 2026
]

---

# Comments or Questions?

## Contact PSUPRC
Email: [askprc@pdx.edu](mailto:askprc@pdx.edu)  
Telephone: 503-725-3922

## Proposal Population Projections
https://www.pdx.edu/population-research/population-forecasts

---

# PSUPRC Project Team

**Huda Alkitkat, PhD.**  
*Population Estimates Manager*

**Seth Dowden**  
*Research Assistant*

**Neal Marquez, PhD.**  
*Population Forecast Manager*

**Gilbert Montcho, PhD.**  
*Demographic & Labor Econ Analyst*

**Scott Nordstrom, PhD.**  
*Post-Doctoral Researcher*
]

**Aja Sutton, PhD.**  
*Post-Doctoral Researcher*

**David Swanson, PhD.**  
*Research Associate*

**Suniva Thangaraj**  
*Program Manager*

**Joshua Wilde, PhD.**  
*Research Scientist*
]

---

# Lake County Outline

- Introduction
- Updates
- County Overview
- UGB Forecasts

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.pux-right {
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---

# PSUPRC OPFP Population Forecasts

.puz-left[
- For the purposes of land use planning PSUPRC generates population forecasts
- For counties, urban growth boundaries (UGBs), and areas outside UGBs
- These forecasts must
    - Be updated at least every four years
    - Cover a 50 year forecast horizon
    - Include most up to date data
    - Allow for public input/objections
    - Methods & results publicly available

]

.puz-right[
![Oregon Seal](https://sos.oregon.gov/PublishingImages/Oregon-State-Seal-Navy-Gold.png)
]

---
# Oregon Population Forecast Program Cycle

![Program Cycle](program_cycle.png)

---
# Methods Review: Cohort Component Method

.pux-left[
- For Counties
- Births = Females 15-50 * Birth Rate
  - Both number of and rate of births in OR decreasing
- Deaths = All Population * Death Rate
  - While number of deaths are increasing rate of deaths decreasing
- Migration = Past migration events
  - Average of past migration is most likely scenario moving forward

]

---
# Methods Review: Housing Unit Method

.pull-left[
- For UGBs
- `$P_t = P_{t-1} + \Delta HU*PPH*OCC$`
- `$PPH$`: Persons per household
  - Estimated from most recent census data
- `$OCC$`: Occupancy Rate
  - Estimated from most recent census data
- `$\Delta HU$`: annual change in housing units
  - Modeled based on past housing unit growth trends

]

---
# After this meeting

- Email for further follow up  
- March 30, 2026 forecast discussion period ends
- Chance to formally appeal until May 15, 2026
  - Will review appeals in the following week
- No further changes will be made after May 22, 2026
- Reports and data tables will be available June 15, 2026

---
class: center, middle, inverse

# Updates

---
# Survey and Preliminary Meeting Feedback

- Received housing and general survey responses from over 20 organizations
- Updated GIS UGB boundary lines 
- Account for large public works alter housing development trajectories
- Incorporate group quarter expansions
- Adjusted housing unit productions
- Housing build moratoriums
- General concerns
  - Restrictions on development  
  - Access to others responses
  
---
# Incoporation of 2025 Certified Estimates

![Estimates](./pop_est_page.png)

---
# Slowing Growth Across the State

![Oregonion](./opb_pop_growth_slow.png)

---

# Changes in Vital Trends

![Oregonion](./births_and_deaths.png)

---

# International Migration

![lex](./inter_mig.png)

---

# Domestic Mobility

![housing](./dom_mobility.png)

---
class: center, middle, inverse

# Lake County

---
# Lake in the News

![green_tech](./lakeview_article.png)

---
# Summary of Considerations

- Lake County's population growth has been consistent but slow
- Further deceleration is expected in the coming years
- Comments suggest alignment in slowing of growth
- No changes made

---

# Lake at a Glance: 2020 Census

<table>
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Statistic </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Lake </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Oregon </th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Total Population </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 8,160 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 4,237,256 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Population Aged 0-17 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 18.86% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 20.20% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Population Aged 65+ </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 25.49% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 18.25% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Population non-White </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 13.84% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 23.41% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Persons per Household </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.25 (4,195 units) </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.48 (1,813,747 units) </td>
 </tr>
</tbody>
</table>

---

# Lake Employment Changes

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activities Sector Jobs: 57","Year: 2008 County: Lake Industry: Financial activities Sector Jobs: 54","Year: 2013 County: Lake Industry: Financial activities Sector Jobs: 48","Year: 2018 County: Lake Industry: Financial activities Sector Jobs: 37","Year: 2023 County: Lake Industry: Financial activities Sector Jobs: 39"],"type":"bar","textposition":"none","marker":{"autocolorscale":false,"color":"rgba(174,162,0,1)","line":{"width":1.8897637795275593,"color":"transparent"}},"name":"Financial activities","legendgroup":"Financial activities","showlegend":true,"xaxis":"x","yaxis":"y","hoverinfo":"text","frame":null},{"orientation":"v","width":[0.5,0.5,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177],"base":[0,0,0,0,0,0,0],"x":[1992.5,1997.5,2002.1818181818182,2007.1818181818182,2012.1818181818182,2017.1818181818182,2022.1818181818182],"y":[998,924,918,1002,980,1105,1100],"text":["Year: 1993 County: Lake Industry: Government Sector Jobs: 998","Year: 1998 County: Lake Industry: Government Sector Jobs: 924","Year: 2003 County: Lake Industry: Government Sector Jobs: 918","Year: 2008 County: Lake Industry: Government Sector Jobs: 1,002","Year: 2013 County: Lake Industry: Government Sector Jobs: 980","Year: 2018 County: Lake Industry: Government Sector Jobs: 1,105","Year: 2023 County: Lake Industry: Government Sector Jobs: 1,100"],"type":"bar","textposition":"none","marker":{"autocolorscale":false,"color":"rgba(100,178,0,1)","line":{"width":1.8897637795275593,"color":"transparent"}},"name":"Government","legendgroup":"Government","showlegend":true,"xaxis":"x","yaxis":"y","hoverinfo":"text","frame":null},{"orientation":"v","width":[0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177],"base":[0,0,0,0,0],"x":[2002.590909090909,2007.590909090909,2012.590909090909,2017.590909090909,2022.590909090909],"y":[25,29,18,18,23],"text":["Year: 2003 County: Lake Industry: Information Sector Jobs: 25","Year: 2008 County: Lake Industry: Information Sector Jobs: 29","Year: 2013 County: Lake Industry: Information Sector Jobs: 18","Year: 2018 County: Lake Industry: Information Sector Jobs: 18","Year: 2023 County: Lake Industry: Information Sector Jobs: 23"],"type":"bar","textposition":"none","marker":{"autocolorscale":false,"color":"rgba(0,189,92,1)","line":{"width":1.8897637795275593,"color":"transparent"}},"name":"Information","legendgroup":"Information","showlegend":true,"xaxis":"x","yaxis":"y","hoverinfo":"text","frame":null},{"orientation":"v","width":[0.5,0.5,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177],"base":[0,0,0,0,0,0,0],"x":[1993,1998,2003,2008,2013,2018,2023],"y":[247,200,185,182,164,187,168],"text":["Year: 1993 County: Lake Industry: Leisure and hospitality Sector Jobs: 247","Year: 1998 County: Lake Industry: Leisure and hospitality Sector Jobs: 200","Year: 2003 County: Lake Industry: Leisure and hospitality Sector Jobs: 185","Year: 2008 County: Lake Industry: Leisure and hospitality Sector Jobs: 182","Year: 2013 County: Lake Industry: Leisure and hospitality Sector Jobs: 164","Year: 2018 County: Lake Industry: Leisure and hospitality Sector Jobs: 187","Year: 2023 County: Lake Industry: Leisure and hospitality Sector Jobs: 168"],"type":"bar","textposition":"none","marker":{"autocolorscale":false,"color":"rgba(0,193,167,1)","line":{"width":1.8897637795275593,"color":"transparent"}},"name":"Leisure and hospitality","legendgroup":"Leisure and hospitality","showlegend":true,"xaxis":"x","yaxis":"y","hoverinfo":"text","frame":null},{"orientation":"v","width":[0.5,0.5,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177],"base":[0,0,0,0,0,0,0],"x":[1993.5,1998.5,2003.409090909091,2008.409090909091,2013.409090909091,2018.409090909091,2023.409090909091],"y":[503,219,272,267,226,192,197],"text":["Year: 1993 County: Lake Industry: Manufacturing Sector 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---

# Lake Migration Flows

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---

# Lake Population

.pulll-left[
Lake's population is expected to continue to grow albeit at a rate slower than observed in the past.
]

.pulll-right[
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]

---

# Lake Compositional Changes

.pulll-left[
Natural change has been on the decline, lowering the impact of positive net migration.
]

.pulll-right[
<div class="plotly html-widget html-fill-item" id="htmlwidget-12399d2844fe0ff9ed23" style="width:504px;height:400px;"></div>
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]

---

# Lake Births

.pulll-right[
<div class="plotly html-widget html-fill-item" id="htmlwidget-618c0a59350e22677639" style="width:504px;height:400px;"></div>
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]

---

# Lake Deaths

.pulll-right[
<div class="plotly html-widget html-fill-item" id="htmlwidget-ba1347145f6d660aac18" style="width:504px;height:400px;"></div>
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]

---

# Lake Life Expectancy & TFR

---

# Population Pyramids

.pulll-left[
The population structure of the county is expected to remain relatively stable due to migration and higher than average fertility rates.
]

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2050 Type: Forecast Sex: Female Age: 75-79 Population: 226","Year: 2050 Type: Forecast Sex: Female Age: 80-84 Population: 143","Year: 2050 Type: Forecast Sex: Female Age: 85+ Population: 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]

---

# Lake Race and Ethnicity

.pulll-left[
Growth in the county has been strongly driven by growth among the Hispanic population.
]

.pulll-right[
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]

---

# Lake UGB Population Changes

---

# Lake UGBs: Lakeview in Context

.pux-right[
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]

.pux-left[
<table>
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Metric </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 1980 </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 2000 </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 2020 </th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Pop 65+ </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 13.94% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 19.56% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 30.81% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Housing Units </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 1,149 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 1,220 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 1,211 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Housing Occupancy </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 93.82% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 85.00% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 88.93% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Persons Per Household </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.53 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.34 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.20 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Household Income </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $17,885 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $30,960 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $52,574 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Employment Rate </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 89.20% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 93.35% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 92.54% </td>
 </tr>
</tbody>
</table>
]

---

# Lake County: Lakeview UGB Boundaries

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# Lakeview UGB Pop Forecast

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# Lakeview UGB Pop Forecast

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# Lake UGBs: Paisley in Context

.pux-right[
<img src="Lake_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-21-1.png" width="800px" height="400px" />
]

.pux-left[
<table>
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Metric </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 1980 </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 2000 </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 2020 </th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Pop 65+ </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 9.62% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 23.89% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 23.60% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Housing Units </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 154 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 176 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 134 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Housing Occupancy </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 84.42% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 65.34% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 76.12% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Persons Per Household </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.64 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.15 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.32 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Household Income </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $14,231 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $28,214 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $44,609 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Employment Rate </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 87.10% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 94.69% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 91.23% </td>
 </tr>
</tbody>
</table>
]

---

# Lake County: Paisley UGB Boundaries

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---

# Paisley UGB Pop Forecast

---

# Paisley UGB Pop Forecast

---

# Comments or Questions?

## Contact PSUPRC
Email: [askprc@pdx.edu](mailto:askprc@pdx.edu)  
Telephone: 503-725-3922

## Proposal Population Projections
https://www.pdx.edu/population-research/population-forecasts